![]() ![]() Republicans still controlled both chambers, but the fact that Democrats didn’t really lose ground was notable nonetheless. ” Similarly, in 1998, when Bill Clinton was president, Democrats actually picked up five seats in the House and broke even in the Senate. Bush was president, Republicans lost eight seats in the House and one seat in the Senate - which, as Politifact wrote, was a setback but not exactly a “shellacking. That makes sense given the historical record, but to push back on that just a little - there are instances when the president’s party didn’t do that poorly. But it sounds like our starting point is that 2022 should, in theory, favor Republicans? Sarah: We’re getting ahead of ourselves with the Senate, Geoffrey! We’ll talk about that more in a minute. Bush was very popular in 2002 in the aftermath of 9/11: According to a retrospective FiveThirtyEight average of polls at the time, he had a 62 percent approval rating and 29 percent disapproval rating on Election Day 2002.Īnd in this era of polarization - where presidential approval ratings are stuck in a very narrow band - it’s hard to imagine Biden ever reaching that level of popularity. Nrakich: Yeah, Democrats are obviously hoping they can buck the trend and point to exceptions like Republicans gaining seats in 2002 as evidence that it’s possible. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Biden’s policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?Īlex ( Alex Samuels, politics reporter): Yes, and here’s why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map(s) are redrawn. Case in point: Since 1946, the president’s party has lost, on average, 27 House seats. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party that’s not in the White House. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, it’s worth kicking off the conversation around what we do - and don’t - know about Republicans’ and Democrats’ odds headed into the midterms. Sarah ( Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): We’re still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. ![]()
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